SovEcon has reduced its projection for Russian wheat production by 300,000 metric tons, bringing the new forecast to 83.3 million metric tons.
In the preceding year, Russia’s wheat harvest amounted to 82.6 million metric tons (mmt).
The current year’s production forecast has been significantly revised downward due to deterioration in crop conditions within the Southern regions of the country, which are crucial for agricultural output.
Decline in South
Wheat yields in Russia’s key wheat-producing South region were 3.6 tons per hectare (t/ha) as of August 1, a decrease from 3.8 t/ha recorded last year, SovEcon’s data showed.
Drought conditions in key agricultural areas led to a substantial year-on-year decline in yields, according to SovEcon. Specifically, southern Russia has experienced significantly reduced rainfall over the last three months, receiving only 60-80% of its usual precipitation.
The consultancy said in its latest update:
As of late August, harvesting in the South is nearing completion, making a recovery in yields unlikely.
Wheat production in the South is estimated by SovEcon to be 30.2 mmt, a reduction of 0.9 mmt. This represents the lowest output since 2020.
Rostov, Russia’s top wheat-producing region, is projected to have its wheat crop at 8.1 mmt, a 19% year-over-year decrease and the lowest yield since 2015 (7.4 mmt).
Krasnodar’s projected production is 7.3 mmt, a 26% year-over-year decrease and its lowest output since 2013 (7.0 mmt).
As of August 1, Russia’s average wheat yields surpassed last year’s figures, reaching 3.7 metric tons per hectare compared to 3.6 metric tons per hectare.
The rise in average yield is driven by strong crop prospects in the Central and Volga regions, the consultancy said.
Promising increase in yields
Harvest reports from key agricultural regions indicate promising increases in crop yields compared to the previous year.
In the Center region of Russia, current yields have reached an impressive 4.8 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), a significant improvement from the 4.0 t/ha recorded at the same point last year.
This 20% increase suggests favorable growing conditions and potentially improved agricultural practices in the area.
Similarly, the Volga region is also reporting substantial gains. Yields there are currently averaging 3.3 t/ha, which is a notable rise from the 2.6 t/ha seen in the prior year.
This represents an increase of approximately 27%, highlighting robust performance across this vital agricultural zone.
Meanwhile, SovEcon has reduced its projection for Ukrainian wheat production by 2.8 mmt, bringing the new estimate to 19.8 mmt.
This revision is attributed to the hot weather conditions experienced in southern Ukraine.
Russian wheat production is currently estimated by the US Department of Agriculture at 83.5 mmt, while Ukrainian output is estimated at 22.0 mmt.
Andrey Sizov, managing director of SovEcon, said:
Lower production forecasts in the key wheat-producing countries of the Black Sea region could support global prices, partly offsetting pressure from relatively strong crops in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere.
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