In the short to medium term, Venezuela’s oil output could grow by around 30% above its current level of just under 900,000 barrels per day, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told executives of oil companies this week, as per a Reuters report.
The assessment was provided privately on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and offers a more balanced picture of the country’s production capacity after years of losses.
The comments coincided with US President Donald Trump trying to persuade American oil executives to spend $100 billion rehabilitating Venezuela’s ailing oil sector and restoring production.
Rising output is a main target for Washington after a US incursion this month that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.
Regardless, executives at the gathering said any boost in production in the short term would be limited on a global scale, even with the political change.
Modest impact on global supply
According to the report, an industry insider said that a 30% increase would result in approximately 300,000 additional barrels per day, with little impact on the world oil market.
Global oil supply stood at 106 million barrels per day in 2025, highlighting the little impact of additional Venezuelan supplies on pricing or balances.
Years of underinvestment and sanctions have withered Venezuela’s oil sector.
In the 1970s, the country produced approximately 3.5 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 7% of global production.
Today, it accounts for only 1% of global output. Restoring even a fraction of that lost capacity will necessitate ongoing capital investment, technological upgrades, and time.
Another participant in the Davos meeting told Reuters that Wright informed CEOs that addressing rapid growth in energy demand will necessitate the use of all resources, including renewables.
The remarks presented Venezuela’s possible contribution as part of a larger energy picture, rather than as a key swing element.
High costs and operational risks
Executives at the meeting also highlighted the technical and cost challenges associated with Venezuela’s extra-heavy crude.
They said the oil requires significant heating and dilution, making extraction and transportation both expensive and time-consuming.
Beyond geological challenges, executives pointed to ageing infrastructure as a major risk.
Another executive said any company entering Venezuela would face serious concerns around safety, inspections and standards, adding that much of the equipment is old.
Together, these factors increase costs and lead times, limiting how quickly production can be scaled up in a practical manner.
Investment conditions are still unclear
Trump spoke with over 15 oil executives earlier this month as part of his efforts to increase investment.
During the discussion, Exxon CEO Darren Woods stated that Venezuela’s laws must be changed before it can become a viable business destination.
The comment highlighted the regulatory framework’s persistent uncertainty, despite Washington’s promise of long-term authority over the country’s resources.
Overall, the Davos debates depicted a cautious image. While Venezuela’s output may recover from reduced levels, executives have suggested that gains will be gradual, costly, and sluggish to materialise.
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